Welcome to Reliability, Probabilistic Design and Risk Analysis of Wind Turbines
Description: Reliability is a very important issue for wind turbines and wind farms. Reliability is important both for estimating failure rates and probabilities for different components and members in structures, and for planning optimal operation and maintenance. In traditional deterministic code-based design the structural costs are influenced by the value of the safety factors. These reflect the uncertainty related to the design parameters. Improved probabilistic design with a consistent reliability level for all components can be obtained by use of probabilistic reliability-based design methods, where explicit account of uncertainties related to loads, material strength, and calculation methods is made. Risk analysis and assessment of wind turbines and systems are important for optimal reduction of the Levelized Cost of Energy, and forms the basis for assessment of value of information in relation to decisions of tests, condition monitoring, and for cost-optimal planning of operation of maintenance. Strategies for planning of operation and maintenance will be presented with special focus on application of reliability- and risk-based methods.
The course will include the following topics:
Introduction to risk and reliability analysis
Stochastic modeling of uncertainties and failure rates, incl. Bayesian techniques
Reliability analysis of electrical and mechanical components
Reliability analysis of structural members by FORM/SORM and simulation methods
Reliability assessment using theoretical models in combination with information from tests
Probabilistic design of wind turbines
Engineering decision analysis and risk-informed decision making
Value of information
Planning of operation and maintenance for wind turbines and wind farms
Prerequisites:
Basic knowledge on probability theory and statistics.
Organizer: Professor John Dalsgaard Sørensen, jds@civil.aau.dk
Lecturers: Prof. John D. Sørensen, Prof. Michael H. Faber and Ass. Prof. Jannie S. Nielsen, Department of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University
ECTS: 4.0
Time: 11 -15 November 2019
Place: Aalborg University, Thomas Manns Vej 23
City: Aalborg
Deadline: 21 October 2019
Important information concerning PhD courses: We have over some time experienced problems with no-show for both project and general courses. It has now reached a point where we are forced to take action. Therefore, the Doctoral School has decided to introduce a no-show fee of DKK 5,000 for each course where the student does not show up. Cancellations are accepted no later than 2 weeks before start of the course. Registered illness is of course an acceptable reason for not showing up on those days. Furthermore, all courses open for registration approximately three months before start. This can hopefully also provide new students a chance to register for courses during the year. We look forward to your registrations.
Description: Reliability is a very important issue for wind turbines and wind farms. Reliability is important both for estimating failure rates and probabilities for different components and members in structures, and for planning optimal operation and maintenance. In traditional deterministic code-based design the structural costs are influenced by the value of the safety factors. These reflect the uncertainty related to the design parameters. Improved probabilistic design with a consistent reliability level for all components can be obtained by use of probabilistic reliability-based design methods, where explicit account of uncertainties related to loads, material strength, and calculation methods is made. Risk analysis and assessment of wind turbines and systems are important for optimal reduction of the Levelized Cost of Energy, and forms the basis for assessment of value of information in relation to decisions of tests, condition monitoring, and for cost-optimal planning of operation of maintenance. Strategies for planning of operation and maintenance will be presented with special focus on application of reliability- and risk-based methods.
The course will include the following topics:
Introduction to risk and reliability analysis
Stochastic modeling of uncertainties and failure rates, incl. Bayesian techniques
Reliability analysis of electrical and mechanical components
Reliability analysis of structural members by FORM/SORM and simulation methods
Reliability assessment using theoretical models in combination with information from tests
Probabilistic design of wind turbines
Engineering decision analysis and risk-informed decision making
Value of information
Planning of operation and maintenance for wind turbines and wind farms
Prerequisites:
Basic knowledge on probability theory and statistics.
Organizer: Professor John Dalsgaard Sørensen, jds@civil.aau.dk
Lecturers: Prof. John D. Sørensen, Prof. Michael H. Faber and Ass. Prof. Jannie S. Nielsen, Department of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University
ECTS: 4.0
Time: 11 -15 November 2019
Place: Aalborg University, Thomas Manns Vej 23
City: Aalborg
Deadline: 21 October 2019
Important information concerning PhD courses: We have over some time experienced problems with no-show for both project and general courses. It has now reached a point where we are forced to take action. Therefore, the Doctoral School has decided to introduce a no-show fee of DKK 5,000 for each course where the student does not show up. Cancellations are accepted no later than 2 weeks before start of the course. Registered illness is of course an acceptable reason for not showing up on those days. Furthermore, all courses open for registration approximately three months before start. This can hopefully also provide new students a chance to register for courses during the year. We look forward to your registrations.
- Teacher: Jannie Sønderkær Nielsen
- Teacher: John Dalsgaard Sørensen